Summary

This paper provides a summary of main content and conclusions from a report on evaluation of existing potential and scenario studies concerning renovation of residential buildings. In addition to literature studies there were conducted own calculations adapted from the most important Norwegian scenario model. Also studies addressing design of regulatory requirements for measures with existing buildings were reviewed. The results were discussed in expert workshops. The technical potential for energy upgrade seems to be under- rather than overestimated. On the other hand, the paper substantiates that the renovation rate is lower than assumed in the scenarios, and illustrates that rules and requirements of laws and regulations will not ensure energy ambitious upgrade to a sufficient degree. As a consequence, other motivations and policy instruments like economic support and measures to influence sociocultural drivers are more important and essential to achieve ambitious goals. There are different types of motivation for energy efficiency and upgrading among the population. For most people, a combination of these may be important: Comfort and indoor environment, general requirements for upgrade (energy efficiency side effect), energy/financial gain, moral, image/group identity. Means to achieve ambitious upgrading in the housing sector must answer many different types of motivators. Therefore we need to have a wide range of instruments to achieve the climate goals.